It seems like a crazy headline, but it turns out that the decline in supply of prospective law students has yielded the expected decline in cost at most law schools over the last three years.

A few years ago, I noted that 30 law schools had become more affordable over a three-year period. I thought I'd see what might have changed since then.

And before sharing the numbers, It's worth cautioning that these numbers have extremely limited value. The U.S. News & World Report ("USNWR") debt rankings include a number of very obvious faults, including a number of schools reporting more than 100% of graduates who obtained debt:

The embarrassing data collection of USNWR calls into question not just these figures but the totality of the rankings. But let's stick with what we've got for the moment.

I removed all schools that failed to disclose debt figures in either the 2015 rankings or the 2018 rankings. I removed the schools that had reported more than 100% of graduates who took on debt. I also removed the three schools in Puerto Rico. That brought the data set down to 163 schools.

Many schools are unable to read the USNWR forms correctly and only report some of the debt one year and the cumulative debt another year; I don't attempt to determine which schools made that error, but the schools with triple-digit percentage increases in debt loads over three years would probably fall into that category.

I calculated 3.0% inflation between 2013 (the class whose debt load is included in the 2015 rankings) and 2016 (the class whose debt load is included in the 2018 rankings) and adjusted the 2013 figures accordingly. The debt figures listed on the site are an average for those who incurred debt; to arrive at a more accurate picture of the debt load of the class as a whole, I then factored in the percentage of students who graduated without any debt to reach an overall average.

Among the 163 schools, 115 saw a decline in overall debt loads; just 48 saw an inflation-adjusted increase.

Many possible reasons for the changes are possible. As I explained in 2013, students may graduate without debt for many reasons: "That could be because they are independently wealthy or come from a wealthy family willing to finance the education; they could have substantial scholarship assistance; they could earn income during school or during the summers; they could live in a low cost-of-living area, or live frugally; or some combination of these and other factors. It's worth noting that several thousand students graduate each year without any debt."

Scholarship awards may be outpacing tuition hikes. Students are no longer purchasing health care due to the ability to remain on their parents' health insurance under federal law, a significant cost for students a few years ago. Schools have increasingly eased, or abolished, stipulations on scholarships, which means students graduate with less debt. Some schools have slashed tuition prices. We might simply be experiencing the decline of economically poorer law students, resulting in more students who need smaller student loans--or none at all. Students may be taking advantage of accelerated programs that allow them to graduate faster with less debt. Finally, as JD class sizes shrink, it's increasingly apparent that students who would have paid the "sticker" price as increasingly pursuing options at institutions that offer them tuition discounts. (I'll have something more about financial aid figures in the near future.)

Additionally, as I've noted before, the "percentage may be somewhat deceptive, because at a very low-cost school, a modest increase in debt load may appear, on a percentage basis, much higher than comparable increase at a high-cost school.  A $10,000 increase in debt at a school that previously had just $20,000 in debt looks like 50%; at a school with $100,000 in debt, just 10%. But I thought percentage would still be the most useful."

And of course, these debt figures are only an average; they do not include undergraduate debt, credit card debt, or interest accrued on law school loans while in school. And, as I've written, "The averages are not precise, either, for individuals. The average may be artificially high if a few students took out extremely high debt loads that distorted the average, or artificially low if a few students took out nominal debt loads that distorted the average."

It's worth noting that some of these changes are hardly random. Major announcements from institutions like Iowa, Arizona, and Chicago back in 2013 signaled major changes in tuition or scholarship structures.

Finally--and while it should go without saying, I fear I need to say it anyway--this is hardly a statement about whether any particular law school is a "good" value or whether the debt loads are appropriate. It's simply a relative comparison of debt loads over three years.